Is this year's Arctic melt slowing down?

Arctic sea ice report – 08/23/2017

This is how the Arctic looks today.

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/W/2017-08-22/5-N88.98456-E106.049

The latest figures based on models seem to show an uptick in ice extent. I am not that good at interpreting the figures below but comments in the Arctic sea ice blog mention that conditions are ripe for a cooling, therefore reaching the hopeful conclusion that we might have “dodged the bullet” again.

I have no idea myself but it does seem that due to weather conditions in the Arctic (it is certainly calmer compared with, say, last week).

The first thing I might observe is that the figure for ice extent are not totally reliable and there is comment on the blog to that effect.

It is equally true that we may have “dodged a bullet” as far as a possible Blue Sea event (or not), but the die is cast. The ice is thin, has badly fractured and there is only a small amount of thick,multi-year ice left, pushed up against the Canadian part of the Arctic.

That ice ain’t coming back – never.

What the illustrations below show is that the water is still way warmer than “average” and, for God’s sake, it is RAINING in various places in the Arctic showing a much greater level of moisture-laden clouds than any time in the past.

Like previous years we wil just have to wait and see what transpires. Maybe, like last year we will see major and unexpected changes in the winter?

Here are the latest figures provided by Torstein Viddal:

Daily volume: 4,326 km³ (3rd lowest for the date) Δ +658/day
–2696/week, +306/month, +314/year, –115/5year (–2.6%)
Daily extent: 5,003,285 km² (5th lowest for the date) Δ –45k/day
–200k/week, –2046k/month, +140k/year, +992k/5year (+25%)

2017 volume maximum 22,255 km³ on May 12th (*lowest*)
2017 volume minimum¹ 3,006 km³ on July 20th
2017 extent maximum 13,878,287 km² on March 6th (*lowest*)
2017 extent minimum¹ 5,003,285 km² on August 22nd
¹Preliminary max/min

Source: JAXA / Wipneus for August 22nd 2017.

Re: The 2017 melting season

« Reply #3901 on: August 22, 2017, 12:36:36 AM »

In terms of drift, hycom predicts some movement, until the 25th, when the forecast is shown below. 26th and 27th similar frigid quietness. The broad highs seem not to set much in motion.

This is excellent to cool things down. If the highs bring clear skies, the better for cooling down ocean and ice.

The following, which I have taken from various sources illustrates the state of play today.

Firstly, precipitation in the Arctic.

Snow and ice in the Arctic


Sea temperatures anomalies



Temperatures in the Arctic