From
the crazies at the Daily Beast.
Putin’s
Missile Could Make U.S. Attacks on Iran Nearly Impossible
This
nuke deal with Iran had better work. Because the Kremlin is lifting a
ban on selling a powerful air defense system to Iran that would
render an airstrike on Tehran’s nuclear weapons facilities nearly
impossible
13
April, 2015
The
delivery of the new weapon, called the Almaz-Antei S-300PMU-1—known
as the SA-20 Gargoyle in NATO parlance—would effectively force the
U.S. to rely on its small fleet of stealth aircraft to strike targets
inside Iran in case the mullahs make a dash for the bomb. But even
those aircraft might have a difficult time.
“This
would be a huge deal depending on where they [the S-300s] are
based…The Persian Gulf would be an interesting place to fly,”
said one senior defense official with experience on multiple stealth
aircraft types. “These new [surface-to-air missiles] change the
whole complexion…It’s a big move.”
According
to a report from Russian state media, Russian President Vladimir
Putin signed a decree on Monday that would allow the sale of the
fearsome S-300 air defense system to Iran.
“[The
presidential] decree lifts the ban on transit through Russian
territory, including airlift, and the export from the Russian
Federation to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and also the transfer to
the Islamic Republic of Iran outside the territory of the Russian
Federation, both by sea and by air, of air defense missile systems
S-300,” reads the Kremlin statement, according to RIA Novosti.
The
U.S. government has lobbied Russia hard for years to prevent the sale
of the S-300 to Iran. In 2010, convincing Putin to suspend the sale
of the S-300 to Iran was heralded as a major foreign policy coup by
the Obama administration. In many ways, it was one of the central
achievements of the so-called reset in relations with Moscow, said
Heather Conley, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington.
Since
then, of course, relations with Russia have cooled to nearly Cold War
levels of hostility. Making life difficult for American policy makers
is once again a Kremlin priority. “Mr. Putin’s policies are not
designed to assist the West or to make our jobs and ability to affect
policy much more difficult,” Conley said. “It’s also reminder
to Washington and other Western capitals that they have some cards to
play here.”
Another
factor that might be motivating Moscow is that with the Russian
economy in shambles, Moscow needs all of the economic stimulus it can
get. The missile deal with Iran would reportedly net Russia more than
$800 million.
The
air defense system is “a complete game changer…That thing is a
beast and you don’t want to get near it.”
Last
year, analysts predicted that if the U.S. sanctions of the Russian
economy grew too tight, the Kremlin would respond by selling S-300s
to Tehran. “I could see as part of this deal [between Tehran and
Moscow] that they would agree to transfer advanced missiles to Iran,”
Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies, told The Daily Beast at the time. “If Putin
became angry enough over the West’s financial punishment of Russia,
he could put in play the S-300 deal.”
The
Kremin’s decision now sends a signal to Tehran that the sanctions
that brought Iran to the negotiating table are done—even before a
final nuclear agreement is signed. “Clearly, this is the sanctions
regime already starting to crack and fall apart in anticipation there
will be an agreement [on nuclear issues with Iran] on June 30,”
Conley said. “This is the first major signal that regime is coming
to an end.”
From
a practical military standpoint, the sale of the S-300 would directly
challenge the U.S. position that “all options are on the table”
should Iran try to subvert the nuclear deal. The addition of the
powerful missile defense system would make punitive airstrikes
against Iran extremely difficult.
Many
U.S. defense officials from the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps
agree that the Russian missile system effectively renders entire
regions no-go zones for conventional jets like the F-16 or Navy
F/A-18 Hornet. Currently, only high end stealth aircraft like the
$2.2 billion B-2 Spirit—of which the Air Force has exactly 20—and
the high performance F-22 Raptor can safely operate inside an area
protected by the S-300 and its many variants. The Pentagon’s $400
billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will eventually be able to operate
inside those zones, too. But according to multiple sources within the
Pentagon and defense industry, no warplane now operating can remain
inside those well-defended areas for long.
A
senior U.S. Marine Corps aviator said that if Russia delivers the
S-300 missile to Iran, it would fundamentally change U.S. war plans.
“A complete game changer for all fourth-gen aircraft [like the
F-15, F-16 and F/A-18]. That thing is a beast and you don’t want to
get near it,” he said.
The
sale of the S-300 also would neutralize any possibility that Israel
could take unilateral action against Iran, one senior Air Force
commander noted. The S-300 would effectively prevent the Israeli air
force from attacking Iran until the F-35 is delivered to that nation.
“I
find it almost hilarious that the Russians are saying, ‘It’s an
entirely defensive system and cannot attack anyone, including
Israel,’” the senior officer said. “But it also essentially
makes Iran attack-proof by Israel and almost any country without
fifth-gen [stealth fighter] capabilities. In other words, Iran, with
the S-300, can continue to do what they want once those systems are
in place without fear of attack from anyone save the U.S. Brilliant
chess move…”
But
even when Israel receives the F-35, the relatively short-range
stealth fighter can only carry a pair of 2,000-pound bombs—which
are not likely to be adequate for the most heavily fortified Iranian
targets. Some of the Iranian facilities are likely to require the use
of the massive 30,000-pound GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator
(MOP) that can only be carried by the American B-2 stealth bomber.
An
attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was going to be a daunting
task, even under the best of circumstances, another Air Force
official with extensive experience flying stealth aircraft said. The
targets are deeply buried—which makes them hard to crack open with
bombs—and the facilities are scattered all over the place. The Air
Force’s tiny fleet of B-2 stealth bombers would have to do most of
the work because only those aircraft have the range and weapons
needed to hit those targets properly. The introduction of any version
of the S-300 would make that extremely difficult job much more
challenging, the official said.
But
the exact number and exact location of where the S-300s are placed
makes a big difference, the official said. That’s further
compounded by the fact that the S-300 system is mobile—and can move
at a moment’s notice.
If
there is a large number of those S-300 air defense systems in place,
even pilots flying stealth jets like the B-2 and F-22 Raptor would be
find the mission to be extremely difficult. “If they’re all over
every square inch of the country, then it doesn’t matter what you
put out there—it’s going to be a challenge,” the Air Force
official said.
But
it’s not just Iran. If Russia and China continue to sell advanced
air defenses around the world, the overwhelming majority of current
U.S. warplanes will be unable to fight in many parts of the globe.
“We are very concerned with the proliferation of big
[surface-to-air missiles]…now in Crimea, Kaliningrad, and Iran if
this is true,” said one senior U.S. Air Force official. “We’re
being denied access faster than we can appreciate, in my opinion.”
That
said, there are some ways in which older non-stealth jets can fight
in areas protected by these new missiles, one senior Air Force
official said. But it would be very risky. “It would be really
classified to discuss specific SAM [surface-to-air missile] counter
tactics, but you know that the ‘double digits SAMs’ [which is
what Air Force pilots call the S-300 and its variants] give all of
the fourth-gen jets great pause,” the official said.
One
way would be to use a combination of miniature air-launched drones
carrying jammers to try and spoof the S-300’s radars by giving it
false targets, another Air Force official said. Those drones would
have to be combined with stealthy long-range missiles to eliminate
the Russian-built air defenses.
It
would also be very helpful to have a jamming aircraft to try and
suppress the S-300’s radar from a distance—which is where the
Navy comes in. “[The Navy’s] EA-18Gs [carrier-based jamming
aircraft] with their ALQ-218 [electronic sensor] will detect, fix,
and track that weapons system,” said a former senior naval aviator.
“Once you have it fixed, they can jam and you can employ weapons
from range to destroy it.”
But
the problem is that the S-300 is a mobile system and thus moves every
so often; U.S. pilots can never be sure where a weapon is at any
given time. “Well, yes...you can kill it” with the right cruise
missile, said Mark Gunzinger, an air power analyst with the Center
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. “This
assumes, of course, that the S-300 launcher remains at a fixed
location after a standoff cruise missile is launched at it.”
Iranian
public figures expressed great excitement and hope for improved
relations with Russia after the ban on S-33 air defense shipments was
lifted.
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