More Heat for the Human Hothouse: NASA Shows First Three Months of 2015 Were Warmest on Record
15
April, 2015
With
El Nino firing off in the Pacific and polar amplification pushing to
ever-greater extremes in the Arctic, 2015 is following hot on the
heels of 2014’s record warmth. A situation that is increasing the
likelihood that the 2014-2015 period will feature back-to-back record
breaking years.
According
to reports from NASA GISS, March of 2015 topped off at third hottest
in the global climate record.
The reading — at +0.84 C above the 20th Century average — fell
just behind March of 2002 (+0.88 C) and March of 2010 (+0.87 C).
A
very warm month in a trio of near record warm months that, when
combined, exceeded the temperature departure for any
January-through-March period in the global climate measure. The
average for 2015’s first three months totaled +0.79 C above 20th
Century climates, making it the hottest start for any year since
1880.
The first three months of 2002 now come in as second hottest at +0.77
C — with 2007 and 2010 tied for the third hottest such period at
+0.75 C.
These
values are +0.99 C above 1880s averages and about +1.14 C above
averages for the cool period at the start of the 20th Century.
Ongoing and growing temperature departures representing a very rapid
rate of temperature rise — one more than ten times faster than the
warming that put an end to the last ice age.
A
Heat Signature Consistent With Human-Forced Climate Change
NASA’s
geographic temperature anomalies map gives us a sense of the
distribution of this extreme and record global heat.
Highest
temperature departures occurred in an expansive zone from
Northeastern Europe, through most of Siberia, and stretching on up
into the high Arctic. This hot zone occurred in conjunction with
persistent south to north air flows over the European and Asian
Continents. These meridional patterns delivered substantial record
heat to the Arctic, contributing to record low sea ice extent
measures by end of month. This region also showed monthly anomalies
in an extraordinary range of +4 to +7.5 degrees Celsius above
average.
A
second hot zone along the US and Canadian West Coast occurred in
conjunction with a Ridiculously Resilient Ridge pattern and related
south to north air flows. This region showed temperature departures
in a range higher than 4 degrees Celsius above average and included
extreme, 1,200 year, drought conditions for California combined with
record heat and wildfires for this broader region.
Throughout
the geographic temperature map provided by NASA, we find that most
global regions experienced much warmer than normal temperatures —
with the equatorial, tropical, and Northern Hemisphere zones showing
the greatest departures.
(Rahmstorf),
include the Northeastern US and Canada, or involve the broader heat
sink in the Southern Ocean. It is a distribution of broad, rapid
warming and isolated localized cooling consistent with what global
climate models have been predicting for human-forced climate change
for many decades now.
These
models predicted that the Northern Hemisphere Polar region would warm
fastest and first, that the Southern Ocean would draw a greater
portion of atmospheric heat into the ocean system, and that land ice
melt near Greenland and West Antarctica would generate cold, fresh
water flows into the nearby ocean zones and set off localized
cooling. Atmospheric cooling, in this case, that would occur in
isolation and in the context of a broader and rapidly warming global
climate system together with a dangerous warming of the land ice
sheets.
Zonal
Anomalies Reveal Extraordinary Polar Amplification, Tell-Tale of
Southern Ocean Heat Sink
The
NASA zonal anomalies map is also consistent with an extraordinarily
strong Northern Hemisphere polar amplification for March. One that
jibes with predicted polar warming due to the human heat forcing.
Here we find an extreme heat departure in the region of 85-90 North
Latitude of +3.2 C for the month. Much of the Northern Hemisphere
shows strong heat amplification with values above +1 C and rising in
all the Latitudinal zones above 40 North.
All
other zonal regions except the noted heat sink in the Southern Ocean
show positive, though less extreme, temperature departures.
Overall,
these are extraordinary and disturbing heat maps. Observations that
validate many of the previous warming predictions. Maps that include
the eerie tell-tale of an early Ocean Circulation slow-down in the
North Atlantic. A set of observations that point toward a number of
rather extreme weather and climate conditions for this year and for
the years to follow.
Links:
Hat
Tip to Kevin Jones
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