Ukraine civil war- update - 08/17/2014

Germans are angry with their leaders and have been screwed over as well

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.nz/2014/08/germans-are-angry-with-their-leaders.html

Dear friends,

I sometimes get very interesting emails in my inbox and this happened today when I found the email below sent to me by "M". Having read it I immediately contacted "M" to ask for his permission to post it here. I felt that this would be especially important since I posted the "Appeal" of Egor Prosvirnin which some of you interpreted as anti-German and then accused me of also harboring anti-German feelings. As I explained it later, my intention had been to make people aware that there is a growing anger against Germany in Russia and that even though I personally did not feel that anger, I considered that anger legitimate, if not necessarily deserved (I soon realized that the most vociferous and nasty protests against this post did not come from Germans or even Germanophiles, but from the same old crowd of neo-Nazis who strongly feel that defending anything German is part of their ethos). Still, I have to admit that I felt bad about the whole thing (because, believe it or not, I am not only not anti-German, I don't even believe in collective, nevermind inherited, guilt). For one thing, as an anti-Soviet Russian myself, I know the very difficult situation of a person who opposes the regime in power in his country, but still feels that his own people are also victims. There are quite a few countries and nationalities who still are resentful and angry with Russians, especially for things which the Soviet forces did during WWII, and I consider that this resentment and anger is legitimate even if sometimes historically one-sided. It is always tough to be at the receiving end of somebody's anger - whether fully deserved or not - and so when I saw "M" email I decided to share it with you and I am grateful to "M" for giving me his permission.

The Saker

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Seeing the hatred and outright ill will some have towards Germans really brought me down. It makes me wonder how we are ever going to manage to have some kind of stability in Europe and the world...

Here are some of the dynamics in Germany, as I see them. Most likely many will disagree and want to debate them, I don't claim they are how it is, just how I see it. I don't claim to know and understand it all. But it's something I would like people to think about, before they write off the German people as a whole.

Where do I start? Something that should be obvious is that Germany is not a free and sovereign country. From the start, when the Federal Republic was conceived, the Allies had a great influence on shaping the new Germany. Especially the Americans. It is somewhat subtle if you are used to how things are, but once you start observing it becomes clear that the American political circles have great influence on ours. Anyone interested can take a look at how many of our Politicians in the various established parties are members in transatlantic clubs. So guess where their allegiance lies? They are not even ashamed of it, it's normal to them. For decades we've had what you can call US whores. Not long ago I complained about that on a page of young transatlanticists and was quickly accused of being anti-American, they weren't interested in any of my arguments. Being anti-American is hardly possible since I am an American citizen. There is a divide between the common people, many of whom don't have anything against Americans but are not too keen on having them involved in German affairs, and many of our leaders who try to make us all believe that we need the United States as partner, come what may. One fact that should make anyone pause is that there are currently still around 40.000 US troops on German soil and various US bases. It may not sound like much, but in principle should any be here at all? We have US nuclear warheads here, the maintenance of which is also paid for by German tax payers money. If you asked the average German what he thought about that, you can be sure that they would be against that. “Ami go home” is a more and more open sentiment here. “American go home”. But will the Americans go? I doubt it. It seems they do not have the slightest interest in granting Germany full sovereignty and of letting go. So the question begs: how free are German politicians to do what they want? And then, how “natural” is the influence Germany has on the shaping of European affairs?

I can fully understand that many in Europe resent Germany, due to the dominating of EU policies and the problems they cause. What many don't know though is that the current administration and the previous ones have been equally harsh on Germans. German politicians don't just sell Europeans out, but their own people. The climate here has changed drastically in past years. People are having increasingly hard times to make a living and are in fear, fear of loosing their jobs, fear of making ends meet, fear of loosing what they have. Fear is the perfect mechanism of keeping people in check. The contempt and the lack of any shame on the part of our government has never been this drastic before. Careful observers have seen it for years. Why people keep voting for the same parties is beyond me. There are some who say voter fraud could be at play. It would not surprise me. At the very least the media have been extremely pro Merkel for years, even campaigning for her and her party, when they should have been neutral. Every once and a while that has been criticized but nothing changes and many don't even notice. Merkel's policies are always aimed at business elites, not the common people. I remember how years ago she spoke of “market conformed democracy”. There was no outcry, no outrage. No one seemed to care. As in most places, the elites own the media as well. So honest and critical reporting has become a thing of the past, unless one watches carefully and knows where to look. The average person doesn't. So if people are angry with Germans, I wish they would know that Germans are angry with our leaders as well and have been screwed over as well. Why Germans put up with that? Good question. This is a subject of its own. My impression is that Germans have always been people that are good at following and bowing to higher ups. They are terribly long suffering, in a bad way. After the Second World War Germans have been pacified as a people, in my opinion. Imagine having the mindset of being aware of things you dislike and that anger you, but thinking that somehow it'll be alright, that life must go on. You go through the motions. And then add a state of paralysis and helplessness. Perhaps that is what is going on with Germans. Of course those that have the upper hand and benefit from the current status have a vested interest in keeping things the way they are. It is unrealistic to expect Germans to magically snap out of it and overthrow the status quo. And though it is not obvious we do have a police apparatus in place that can quickly stomp out any uprising.

I will not deny that Germans can be arrogant in their views. But there is a constant stream of medial manipulation feeding them that perspective. I know that deep down Germans want peace and have no interest in dominating other Nations and people. Many are actually appalled and shocked because our leaders are calling for more involvement in conflicts and taking on more “responsibility”. People see that as dangerous and hypocritical. The problem is that the (you can only call it) “political cast” is so far gone and so far out of touch with the common people. There is a complete disconnect. I see it on Facebook postings of Steinmeier, Gabriel and many others. They live in their own world, facts and reality do not exist for them. And their personal integrity and values are non existent. Calling them pathetic would still be a compliment. It is not any different with our media. Regularly you get to see statistics that suggest people to be skeptic of Putin and Russia. Every time many speak out and question these. Sometimes there are polls in which readers can take part and they say the opposite, that people see through the lies and are not in favor of sanctions and do not want a conflict with Russia, that they do not want anything to do with the crimes committed in the Ukraine. There's a saying “don't trust any statistic that you haven't forged yourself.” There have been statistics for years, that suggest Merkel having very high support among people.. To me it's a mystery how she has been in power for so long. I guess there still are many idiots who believe in her, but there are also very many who would like to see the worst happen to her.

Many people see that when the wall came down and the two Germanies were reunited, the Soviets/Russians were fair. Just think about how much time has passed, when have the United States and the British made an attempt at the same fairness? I'm afraid the US would rather see Germany in ruins yet again, rather than leaving and giving the Germans freedom. I understand the resentment that many have for Germans, but am also shocked by how much hatred there is. Is it not the same principle in most places, that Governments do not act in accord with and represent the will of the people? And to what degree can we count on the will of the people when they are not given accurate information and facts, but are fed half truths at best and outright manipulation most of the time? Ironically I see a lot of Americans accusing us of cowardice for not taking a more aggressive stance against Russia. The same with the Polish. Merkel's behavior in this crisis makes no sense to me at all. At times she is bullying Russia, like the perfect US poodle, but then there are reports of her reaching out to Putin. Either she is completely soul less without a personal sense of direction, or she is more devious than she appears. No idea what her true aims are. They certainly don't seem to be what they should be. Part of her vow when sworn into office is to avert harm from the German people. She is steadily doing the opposite. She and her cronies along with her.

It seems that we are prisoners of a political apparatus gone insane, both on a German level and a EU level. Then there's NATO on top of that. And lets be realistic, the cards are stacked in favor of the higher ups. That is no excuse for giving up, which I am not suggesting, but haters need to take a close look at reality. Finding solutions is not that easy, is it? So, this is part of what I observe, I bet I forgot a lot. My health is not too well and my strength limited.

Best regards,

"M"

A very telling video on Ukie assault tactics

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.nz/2014/08/a-very-telling-video-on-ukie-assault.html

Check out this interesting video of a Ukie battalion commander.  His frustrated speech clearly shows the following:

1) The basic Ukie tactic: choose a spot on the map, hammer it with artillery fire for a few hours and then send in soldiers as canon fodder to "mop it up".  What is important to understand here is that well-trained military forces know how to dig in an protect themselves from artillery fire. Proof: the Ukies surrounded by the Resistance in the "southern cauldron" managed to survive *weeks* of very heavy Novorussian and Russian artillery fire and survive (even if with lots of casualties).  So if *weeks* of artillery fire cannot wipe out a force in more or less open terrain, a few hours will not wipe out a well-entrenched force.  Another example?  The long stance of the Resistance forces in Slaviansk.  The fact is that in an urban environment you need to send in very well trained urban assault teams.  Just bombing will not do the trick unless you use FAE (fuel-air explosives) munitions, heavy flame-throwing systems like the TOS-1 or tactical nukes.  What the Ukies do seems to shoot enough artillery to kill civilians, but not enough to meaningfully degrade the Resistance forces, and then send in the infantry to supposedly "mop-up" an urban area which is full of well-entrenched high-quality Resistance forces.  Hence the huge losses on the Ukie side.

2) Noticed his comment about the BMP's main gun stopping after 15mins?  The BMP's gun is one of the most trustworthy ever made and there is only one thing which can explain that kind of occurrence: gross neglect of even minimal maintenance.  That is also telling of the condition of most Ukie equipment: old and not maintained.

3) Morale: in such circumstances it is not surprising at all that Ukie morale is at rock-bottom.  Nobody wants to die in stupid operations, under-trained, under-fed, under-protected - neither conscripts not pros.  I have yet to see a video showing some good morale on the Ukie side.  Conversely, I have yet to see a single video showing poor morale on the Resistance side.
Botton line: the Ukies are in a terrible situation which is only getting worse. 

See for yourself this interesting video:

Novorossiya Military Briefing - Situation by August 16-17, 2014

Map: Hostilities in Novorossiya, August 6-15, 2014

Link to Novorossiya Military Briefing, July 15, 2014 

Original: Colonel Cassad, August 16, 2014, 02:27

Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Briefly about the situation in Donbass as at the beginning of August 16, 2014 

 

In the last two days, just as was announced earlier, the Militia was finally able to enter into battle the reserves that were freed up following the rout of the Southern Cauldron, as well as some of the trophies that were obtained there. This immediately improved the situation at the front – the breakthrough to Krasniy Luch was localized and isolated, the Junta grouping in the area of Snezhnoye and Miusinsk was defeated, and the breakthrough to Marinovka was effected, leading to the formation of a new mini-cauldron, which have now become commonplace. At the same time, the Junta’s offensive against Enakievo and Gorlovka was stopped in its tracks, and fighting began on the outskirts of Debaltsevo. Overall, Zakharchenko’s counteroffensive appears to be more effective than the counteroffensive previously announced by Bolotov. Truth be told, however, it still manifests more as local counterstrikes that stabilize the front lines than a full-fledge counteratta

 

The consequences are undeniable - there is clear evidence of substantial losses incurred by the Junta in manpower and military hardware, new mini-cauldrons (to the east of Marinovka and near Miusinsk), the retention of control over the key highway from the LPR to Donetsk, the preservation of communications with Gorlovka, and the success in repulsing the attacks on Ilovaisk. Overall, over the last several days, the Junta’s offensive clearly has begun to run out of steam, which is not surprising, given the serious losses sustained by the Ukrainian army. The Militia’s arriving reserves have facilitated obvious strikes aimed at wedging into the Junta’s forces. 

Nevertheless, to the north of Donetsk, the Junta retains sufficient troops to maintain the initiative. Shielding itself from the Alchevsk grouping of the DPR Army with barrier groups, the Junta continues to concentrate forces in the area of Debaltsevo, with the intention of retaining this key centre and developing its attempt to flank Donetsk from the north. At the time, it is certain that the Ukrainian army will make an attempt to push through Uglegorsk, aiming thereby to encircle Gorlovka. This is the most obvious next step. 

 

The Junta’s problem is in the fact that practically all the reserves have already been entered into battle. Moreover, instead of a concentrated strike on Donetsk, these reserves ended up being spread across multiple sections of the front – whether for the purpose of tactical strikes or to save the encircled brigades. High losses and the lack of reserves will gradually force the Junta into taking an operational pause, whereas political considerations will continue to compel it to pursue the operation at all costs.

Overall, over the past two days, the situation on the territory of the DPR has improved. However, it should be understood that, despite all the losses, the Junta continues to retain the initiative in certain areas and still maintains an overall superiority in manpower and military hardware. Accordingly, wearing rose-coloured glasses is not recommended. The struggle here will be difficult and bloody. 

 

On the territory of the LPR, using the troops of the group that was located at the Lugansk airport, the enemy stretched a long and narrow intestine from the airfield to Novosvetlovka. At the same time, in an effort to support this line, it attempted to take control of Khryashevatoye. It appears that the motivation for this strange operation conducted using clearly insufficient forces was to try to impede the passage of the Russian humanitarian convoy. Equally predictably, the Junta forces that burst into Novosvetlovka was already in the afternoon of August 15, 2014 surrounded on three sides and sustained serious losses in attempts to retain Novosvetlovka.

From the operational standpoint this was a manifest gamble, considering that the southern flank of the enemy grouping advancing on Khryashevatoye and Novosvetlovka was left almost entirely unprotected. As the breakout stretched to the east, an intestine squeezed on three sides was formed, which simply cries out for being severed and completely encircled. 

  

Moreover, in the evening of August 15, 2014, the Junta forces entered into battles in the suburbs of Lugansk, and the fighting continued until nightfall. If the original plan consisted of breaking through to the Lugansk-Krasnodon highway and holding it as long as possible, while other troops moved in to assault Lugansk, then, considering the nature of urban warfare, and provided the LPR Army acts competently, then the defeat at Novosvetlovka will come about a lot sooner than any appreciable advance into Lugansk. Essentially, here we have to wait for the outcome of the battles.

Overall, the situation remains difficult; however, in the past couple of days it has improved somewhat for the Militia.

Commentary from John Kochang

Debaltsevo and Gorlovka I still think are the key. If the SDF [Note: Novorossiya Self-Defence Forces] can utilize the ‘1200’ troops trained in Russia, who it is claimed joined the ranks the other day, along with all the trophies from the Southern Cauldron, this could be the foundation for a brigade that would go on the offensive, using the 1200 men as NCOs for the Militia and a Spearhead Battalion made up of the most combat experienced men.

It would still only be on a small scale as offensive operations require a cohesive C&C and experienced staff. If they could push Ukrainian army back out of Debaltsevo, the Ukrainian forces will have to pull troops from around Donetsk, as they seem to have no reserves, which is evidenced by the 3rd mobilization call up and training.

The shock and panic I believe this would create will spread through the demoralized Ukrainian troops. There is also talk now of Right Sector [Note: Praviy Sector] issuing a 48 hour warning to the Kiev Junta [Note: Confirmed], that they will stop fighting and march on Kiev if their demands are not met! I hope Poreshenko fails to deliver, as the SDF could do with all the good luck!

Novorossiya Military Briefing - Situation by August 17, 2014

Map: Hostilities in Novorossiya, August 6-15, 2014

Link to Novorossiya Military Briefing - Situation by August 16, 2014

22:00 (UA) – Aug 16 – Military Briefing

Original: Yurasumy LiveJournal

Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Right away, allow me to make a reservation. Some of the information has yet to be confirmed. It is provided here for the purpose of presenting a fulsome overview of the situation.

Counter-offensive of the DPR Army

In the evening, the situation with respect to the counter-offensive of the DPR Army began to started to become clear. The strike has been made. However, it did not come from the direction of Ilovaisk. One of the columns is attacking Blagodatnoye from the side of Torez. At the time this was written, there was no information as to who controls the village, but the units of the Junta to the north of Saur-Mogila were cut off in the village of Petrovskoye.

Literally half an hour ago [Note: August 16, 2014, 21:30] the DPR Army announced the taking of the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint. The second column, which was moving along the border, arrived at this border-crossing checkpoint in the morning and took control of it by the evening. In addition, artillery strikes were conducted on the Junta units in the area of Kuteynikovo. The DPR Army’s saboteur-reconnaissance groups (“SRG”) are active in the area of Starobeshevo.

Southern Cauldron 2.0

Kozhevnya has been taken. In the area of Miusinsk and Krasniy Luch, the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were partially eliminated and partially taken prisoner. There remain a few isolated pockets of resistance. Given that the DPR Army has commenced its assault, there is nowhere that they can expect help from, and that is why 17 soldiers of the 25th Brigade today crossed the border into the Russian Federation and the DPR Army has been reporting cases of mass surrender by the remaining servicemen of the 25th Brigade.

To the North of Donetsk

This is the only area where the Junta’s offensive has yet to run out of steam. Today there was a strike on Zhdanovka and Nizhnyaya Krynka. Fighting continues in these towns. An attack on Yasinovataya also took place. As yet, there are no results. The morning will show whether or not this is serious and if Gorlovka will be operationally encircled [Note: This danger did not come to pass, Gorlovka remains connected to Donetsk]. Due to lack of troops for an assault on Gorlovka, this offensive appears to be an attempt to distract the forces of the DPR Army from the crumbling southern front.

Counter-offensive in the LPR

The second counter-offensive, to the west and to the north of Lugansk, has been ongoing successfully for the past two days. Yesterday the settlement of Zimgorye and Rodakovo were taken. Today, the LPR Army liberated Sabovka. As a result, the Lutugino grouping of the Junta ended up in operational encirclement. Moreover, it is being squeezed by the LPR Army from the side of Uspenka. Also closer the evening reports were received that the troops of the punitive units were eliminated in the area of Khryashevatoye and that the enemy suffered significant losses in the area of Novosvetlovka. Most likely, by tomorrow the highway to Izvarino will again be free of the Ukrainian forces. Accordingly, a fuller picture of the operational plan of the counter-offensive has emerged – the complete unblocking of Lugansk.

Lugansk

Today there were insignificant battles in the northern suburbs of Lugansk; however, this fighting did not resemble an assault. By the evening, the fighting died down. There are no Ukrainian forces in the city.

Conclusions

The Junta’s offensive has nearly fizzled out. The units that ended up in the new Southern Cauldron are being subjected to fairly powerful pressure. Accordingly, the Militia has sufficient forces to eliminate the enemy units and the rout of the Ukrainian grouping will not turn into a lengthy saga this time around. Moreover, the offensive launched against Amvrosievka is developing successfully. The appearance of unified command can be felt.

This is especially visible in the case of the LPR. The strikes of the militiamen are well conceived and coordinated. As a result, the Junta grouping, which was weakened by the redeployment of a part of the forces to the Donetsk area, is retreating with losses. It is being simultaneously attacked from several directions and clearly lacks the troops to hold the stretched out front line. If the Lutugino grouping is not moved out to the north over the next day or two, it will repeat the fate of the Southern Cauldron, and the northern front of the punitive forces will be forced beyond the line of the Severskiy Donets river due to the lack of reserves (it is precisely from Severskiy Donetsk that the Junta commenced its offensive in the beginning of June).

The number of battle worthy units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that are present at the front has sharply declined. The Junta has been forced to plug holes in the front lines with Territorial Defence Battalions, which by no means can be considered to be battle ready units due to lack of proper training and heavy armaments. At the very least, the Junta’s southern front is floating out of control. The front to the north of Lugansk may be in the same situation next week (if the Junta continues stubbornly to latch on to the city of Lutugino). To the north of Donetsk the situation is complex, but overall controllable.

Note (Gleb Bazov): While this update sounds even more optimistic than the preceding one, this is not the time for rose-coloured glasses. The critical, and I would say – catastrophic, humanitarian situation continues to have a fundamental impact on the situation on the ground, and the remaining operational crises have yet to be resolved. Overall, while cautious optimism is warranted, it would be inappropriate to adopt the approach of the Ukrainian propaganda machine and trumpet victory. Save the champagne for Kiev.

20:26 (UA) – Aug 16 – The Rout of the 30th Brigade

Original: Yurasumy LiveJournal

Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Today, one of the mouthpieces of Maidan propaganda, Roman Bochkala (TV “Inter”) wrote on his social media page: 

 

Post #1: They broke out! Five days they spent under Grad and mortar fire without food, water or weapons. They were offered to surrender in exchange for life, but they stood their ground. The first company of the 1st Battalion of the 30th Brigade. They had no communications with the command. The guys decided to risk it and break out of the encirclement fighting. And they made it out. However, with losses … In total, our of 96 fighters, only 43 remain able to fight. The rest are “200s”, “300s [Note: Killed in Action/KIA and Wouned in Action/WIA], and seven guys were taken prisoner. They can be found somewhere between Torez and Antratsit. The details of how the 30th broke out of encirclement I will provide later. The main thing now is that they made it out!

 

 

Post #2: Even if all this resembles a hamster wheel, we must continue helping. The 1st and the 3rd Battalions of the 30th [Brigade] have been destroyed. After the battles in the area of Stepanovka, almost everything the guys had, from equipment to personal items, burned down. And that is why our help is needed now more than ever.

Slightly earlier another message from one of the “concerned citizens”, Denis Pyatigorets (original – Rusvesna.su):

The guys need HELP! For the past four days, they have been waiting for their commanders, who are not in any hurry to come by! Instead, the military prosecutor has already visited. They are attempting to declare the guys deserters. Even though they broke out of hell at Saur-Mogila … Their, encircled, are more guys who could not make it out. There are many dead and wounded!!!

The guys are waiting for help from psychologists and journalist. According to them, THEY DO NOT EXIST … If anyone wants to help, they are currently on the territory of the old helicopter base near Melitopol, in the settlement of Mirnoye.

This is also about the 30th Brigade. In accordance with already established practice (just like what happened to the 72nd, 79th, 51st, and the 24th Brigades), the remnants of the units that did not justify the high confidence placed in them, are being declared deserters, abandoned by their command, and then …

Who is next?

P.S. “Inter” is a pro-Porosheno TV channel. If even their journalists are going crazy, then Petya is in trouble.

Ukraine Crisis | Do 

Ukrainians Want War? - 

Local Deputy

Appeal by Viktoria Shilova, a politician form the Donbass region