Ukraine on the brink of civil war

Things have taken a sharp turn for the worse in the last 24 hours. I will leave you with this summary for the time being.

You will understand if I won't be posting so much in the coming few days, I'm sure

Ukraine SITREP April 15, 10:54 EST (a sharp turn for the worse)

The situation in the Ukraine has taken a very sharp turn for the worse.

Two Presidential candidates from the eastern part of the country were assaulted yesterday by Ukie brownshirts. Mikhail Dobkin got away with only paint and flour thrown at him, but reports say that his bodyguard were hurt. Oleg Tsarev got severely beaten, however, and barely escaped the Right Sector lynch mob. No doubt, this will not prevent the "democratic West" from concluding that the elections were free and fair.

A mob of Right Sector activists surrounded the Parliament building in Kiev and accused the regime in power of incompetence and indecision in its repression of the eastern Ukraine. The Right Sector wants weapons do "close down the border with Russia and deal with the insurrection in the East". After some negotiations they gave the so-called "President" 24 hours to yield to their demands. Iulia Tymoshenko was so frightened that she apparently declared that the Right Sector might seize power.

The "anti-terrorist" operation has now clearly begun. Several towns and at least one airport in the East have been stormed by pro-regime forces. Combats are reported from many parts of the region.

In the meantime, the EU and the USA are preparing another round of sanctions against, you guessed it, Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has announced that if the regime in Kiev uses violence the talks scheduled for this Thursday in Geneva will be scrapped.

Putin called Obama and they had diplomats often call a "frank and lively exchange of views"

I have just received the confirmation that the video with the so-called "Russian Lt.-Colonel" is a fake made by a member of the UDAR party of Klitchko (Google translated article here)

It appears that after a few days of confusion and chaos, the regime in Kiev and its western sponsors have decided to try to solve the problem by brute force. This maximalist strategy of "no negotiations, only violence" is fully consistent with the usual US practice and the record of the Ukie neo-Nazis. For a few days there were signs that maybe a real negotiation might take place, but now this options seems have been discarded in favor of a violent crackdown. Of course, the recent visit of the CIA director in Kiev (now admitted by the US government) had strictly nothing to do with that. Yeah, right.

Now a lot will depend on how effective the Fascist forces will be in their crackdown. I personally very much doubt that the goal of pacifying the eastern Ukraine is achievable. The freaks can probably put down a town or two, but all of them seems hardly doable, even over time and one by one.

Furthermore, and even though the Kremlin really does not want to end up in this situation, I am quite certain that the Russia military will intervene should the bloodbath become too massive.

I am starting to get the feeling that the West's 1%ers have concluded that a civil war in the Ukraine and/or a Russian intervention might be a better option that a democratic and federalized Ukraine. Within their own logic and twisted system of values, they might be right: there are more and more signs that a referendum or any chance for democracy could be used by the eastern Ukraine to secede. So, in the traditional AngloZionist way, they concluded "if I can't have it, I burn it".

The idea that the Ukraine might turn into another Afghanistan is, however, naive to the extreme. Afghanistan was a country united just about only one thing: the hatred of foreign occupiers. Furthermore, the Soviet troops who fought there were officially doing their "internationalist duty" and not defending their own people and land. Then, while the Soviet Union did occupy all of Afghanistan, thus an large hostile area, I am quite sure that any Russian military operation would stop at the Dniepr (who in Russia or eastern Ukraine needs to live "under one roof" with the Galician Nazis anyway?!). Finally, and contrary to the prevailing myth, the Soviet military was rather successful in Afghanistan and it withdrew only because Gorbachev and the Russian people found it pointless, if not outright immoral, to invade another country. In other words, politics got the Soviet out, not the prowess of the Afghan resistance who could not even take Kabul for a full three years after the Soviet withdrawal.

In contrast with Afghanistan, all the Russian military would have to do is whack the forces involved in the repression against the East and then let the locals take over. Something not unlike what the Russians did in Georgia: they eliminated the Georgian armed forces, helped the folks in South Ossetia and Abkhazia get organized, withdrew and recognized the sovereignty of these republics. One possible option for the Russian military would be to engage in a short but determined attack on key installations and units involved in the crackdown, then let the locals organize their "Republic of Donetsk" or "Novorossia" or whatever else they want to call it and recognize it as an independent state. No such option was even remotely possible in Afghanistan. So all that talk about a "new Afghanistan for Russia" is just wishful thinking by western elites.

The next week will be crucial and the outcome of the conflict will probably be decided in the next days so stay tuned.

Kind regards,

The Saker

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/2014/04/ukraine-sitrep-april-15-1054-est-sharp.html

Ukraine on the brink as troops take on rebels

Vladimir Putin denounces Kiev for mobilising forces against pro-Russian gunmen in east of country

the Guardian,

15 April, 2014

Ukrainian government forces launched their first significant military action in the east of the country on Tuesday, clashing with about 30 pro-Russian gunmen at a provincial airfield and heightening fears that the standoff could escalate into a major armed conflict.

Shots were fired in Kramatorsk airport as Ukrainian special forces stormed in to reassert Kiev's control. As troop helicopters hovered above and tempers flared, a Ukrainian general was set upon by a group of local people incensed that two protesters had been injured, knocking off his military-issue fur hat and yelling, "Jail him."

At the same time as Kramatorsk airport was being seized, elite Ukrainian units were also gathering outside the nearby city of Slavyansk in an operation aimed at taking back control from armed pro- Russian groups.

The deployment involved regular army troops alongside special forces from the interior ministry and the security service in at least nine troop carriers and seven buses. Tracked troop carriers could be seen parked in the woods.

It was the first major operation since the Ukrainian government vowed to take "anti-terrorist" action if the rebels did not vacate government buildings in eastern Ukraine. A smaller, abortive operation in Slavyansk on Sunday ended in a shoot-out, in which one Ukrainian soldier died and two were wounded, apparently by pro-Russian forces.

Ukraine's acting president said the recapture of the airport was just the first such action aimed at restoring Kiev's control over the east.

"I just got a call from the Donetsk region: Ukrainian special forces have liberated the airport in the city of Kramatorsk from terrorists," Oleksandr Turchynov told parliament.

"I'm convinced that there will not be any terrorists left soon in Donetsk and other regions and they will find themselves in the dock – this is where they belong."

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, declared the Ukrainian moves "anti-constitutional acts" and in a phone call to the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, demanded that the UN condemn them. But the US voiced strong support for the Ukrainian operation, arguing that the government in Kiev "has to respond" to armed groups.

"We understand the government of Ukraine is working to try to calm the situation in the east and note the measured approach of the Ukrainian security forces thus far," said White House press secretary Jay Carney.

Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the US and the European Union are due to meet in Geneva on Thursday for the first time since the crisis began in February, but there were clear signs that the situation in eastern Ukraine risked spiralling out of control before the diplomats could meet.

In Kiev, two candidates from a pro-Russian party campaigning for planned May elections were attacked by loyalist crowds.

In Kramatorsk, meanwhile, the commander of the Ukrainian operation to seize back control of the airport, General Vasily Krutov, was jostled and manhandled by furious local people when he addressed a crowd that gathered at the airfield's perimeter.

He had told them that his men had been forced to open fire because they had been confronted by gunmen in military uniform without insignia, but the protesters insisted there had only been local people armed with clubs. The Guardian saw a man in the crowd with a wound on his side that he said was from a bullet graze.

Krutov insisted that the unrest in eastern Ukraine, where protesters are seeking local referendums on greater autonomy from Kiev, were being led by Russian forces. He said more than 300 Russian troops had infiltrated the neighbouring Luhansk region the day before. "We need to destroy this foreign invader," Krutov said. "We have among these spies Russian military, professionals with long experience in all sorts of conflicts."

The mayor of Slavyansk said the pro-Russian local people there were being supported by unmarked troops from Russia and Crimea. Turchynov gave pro-Russians in eastern Ukraine until Monday morning to give up their arms and the buildings they had seized, but instead a pro-Russian mob took over yet another government building in Horlivka that day. A man who appointed a new police chief there later said he was a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army.

Krutov said the government's ultimatum would not be extended. That would be "too humanitarian", he said. He added that civilian casualties were possible but his forces would try to make sure "not one innocent person suffers".

He said: "Unfortunately we face a difficult situation because those realising their plan are hiding behind human shields" – an apparent reference to the many pro-Russian local people who have taken part in taking over buildings. "Some of them are cynically working toward their own ends, but many are under the influence of propaganda," he said.

At the White House, Carney said the Ukrainian authorities had repeatedly sought to negotiate a peaceful resolution with armed groups occupying buildings in eastern cities, and made clear that use of force was not its "preferred action".

But he continued: "That said the Ukrainian government has a responsibility to provide law and order. These provocations in eastern Ukraine are creating a situation in which the government has to respond."

Asked what advice the CIA director, John Brennan, who visited Kiev on Saturday, and other US officials have given security forces in Kiev, Carney replied: "We urged the Ukrainian government to move forward, gradually, responsibly, and with all due caution, as it deals with this situation caused by armed militants.

"Let's be clear: the way to ensure that violence does not occur is for these armed paramilitary groups, and these armed so-called pro-Russian separatists, to vacate the buildings and to lay down their arms."

William Hague, the foreign secretary, said in a speech to the City of London on Tuesday that the EU was completing preparations for "far-reaching economic, trade and financial sanctions whenever necessary" against Moscow.

"In recent days Russia has deliberately pushed Ukraine to the brink, and created a still greater risk of violent confrontation," he said. "We call on Russia to stop these actions and to condemn the lawless acts in eastern Ukraine."

The UN human rights office, meanwhile, said ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine had falsely claimed to be under assault to justify Russian intervention, warning that such propaganda could affect Ukraine's presidential election next month.

Russia condemned the report, saying it was one-sided and seemed to have been "fabricated" to fit pre-formed conclusions.

The events in Ukraine helped pushed global stock markets down as investors worried that the west might scale up sanctions against Russia. The DAX index in Germany, which has strong trade ties with Russia and imports a third of its gas from the country, fell 1.8%, while Moscow's Micex slumped 2.5%.